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Analyzing the Drive for Five (Hundred)


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#1 OFFLINE   Chris TMC

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 07:52 PM

The Isles are technically still in the playoff race, I know- but I have maintained since all the way back around the end of November that was not going to happen this season. Losing 20 out of 21 games is too much to overcome, even for a team that has earned the most points in the eastern conference in the timespan since things turned around.

What CAN happen is something I was all but certain of in December would also be completely impossible- the Isles can avoid a losing 10-11 season.

The New York Islanders are currently at: 70GP | 27W | 32L | 11OTL/SOL | 65PTS
That means they are presently 5 games under NHL-500, with 12 games to go. (NHL-500 means 82 points in 82 games played)

Since the Isles have 65 points right now, they would need to earn 17 points in those 12 games.

As a matter of perspective, the Isles earned 16 points in their last 12 games (6-2-4)
They need to play exactly like they have been playing, except they need to find ONE more point in that time span.

Its not going to be easy, though.

Fact: The Isles fare far better at home.
8 of the previous 12 games were at home, and only 4 were away.
Only 5 of the final 12 are home games- 7 are away.
Thats gonna make it harder.

Fact: Only 5 of the previous 12 games were against teams assured of a playoff spot... although 4 more of those against non-playoff teams were against the Leafs and Devils, who have been making great runs.
Of the next 12, virtually all of the teams except the Panthers are either in a playoff spot or are either close or making great runs.
That too will make it harder.

Below are are the games coming up in the remainder of the season, along with my predictions.
A few notes: I lumped all losses (REG L, OTL, SOL) together as non-wins... but I included the points in the last line because that affects things here.
I predicted all upcoming games as wins or non-wins.

Posted Image

So, the Isles need 17 points. The way I see things at the moment (of course things can and will change when you see what the other teams are doing) the Isles are likely to get 12 points from straight-up wins. That means they would either have to earn 5 points in the other 6 non-win games, or win some of those games outright.
Note that in the drive for five hundred, it doesnt matter whether the other teams get points off us... an OTW or a SOW means just as much as a Reg W.

So, what do you think? Do you see the Isles drive for five hundred being successful?

This point has been edited by Chris TMC: 13 March 2011 - 07:52 PM

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#2 OFFLINE   Erik C.

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 08:11 PM

I don't know about successful, but it's definitely a reasonable goal to shoot for.

If it were me, I'd ultimately like them just play well to finish the season like they have been since the end of December.
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#3 OFFLINE   Chris TMC

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Posted 16 March 2011 - 09:37 PM

6 games under, now...

Posted Image


I had a feeling they were gonna lost that game, though- I really did. :(
Isles need to stop losing in regulation- and, preferably, win. Posted Image
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#4 OFFLINE   Chris TMC

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Posted 19 March 2011 - 12:34 PM

Still on schedule... at least, how I predicted it to go.
Posted Image

But NOW its time to start winning!
6 games under NHL-500, with 10 games to go.
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#5 OFFLINE   Chris TMC

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Posted 19 March 2011 - 12:41 PM

BTW- Isles playoff chances are currently at 0.001876%. {link}
That means even if the Isles win out- winning all 10 games remaining in regulation- they would have just over a 4% chance of making the playoffs.
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