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Analyzing Umberger's Regression


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#1 OFFLINE   **LS**

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 03:20 PM

During the 2010 – 2011 season RJ Umberger posted a career high 57 points (25 goals and 32 assists) and was rewarded by GM Scott Howson with a five-year contract extension worth $23MM, carrying a cap hit of $4.6MM annually. It seemed a wise investment at the time to lock up the 29 year-old forward a year before he would have hit unrestricted free agency. Umberger had posted goal totals of 25, 23 and 26 respectively in each of the seasons leading up to the deal and surely would have been offered at least that much on the open market had he reached it. Big forwards who can consistently net 25 goals are a popular commodity in the NHL.

Unfortunately for Umberger, Howson, the Columbus organization and Jackets fans, the 6’2” 220lb winger has seen his production decline since signing that contract. Last season he still reached the 20-goal mark but recorded 17 fewer points overall than the year prior. This season through eight games, Umberger has just one point, an assist. So, what’s happened to Umberger and why has his production regressed? Is it a one-year anomaly (since the eight games he’s played this year are virtually meaningless in the big picture)? Let’s study this issue to find out.

The first factor usually considered when a player begins a regression is age; has the player passed his peak and is he on the down-slope of his career? Umberger did hit 30 late last season (May) and that’s an age many consider to be the beginning of the end in a hockey career. Still, many players remain productive well into their 30’s so while we can’t completely dismiss the notion that Umberger’s best years are behind him it’s far from a foregone conclusion that age alone is the culprit.


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#2 OFFLINE   DRodger91

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 09:29 PM

Umberger didn't play anywhere during the lockout did he? If he didn't, It's a slow start, most players have been in full form for months now, yet these players jumping back in just have the gym and some skate time to back them up. Let's not hit the panic button just yet!
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#3 OFFLINE   cbj10

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 09:51 PM

He didn't play anywhere , he volunteered as a coach with osu. But honestly he has been the most frustrating player on the ice by far
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